Back in August, we took a look at the big gains that Democrats were making across Nevada in terms of voter registration. Well, the Nevada Secretary of State has updated its numbers with the final pre-election voter registration tallies for the state, and Democrats have widened their statewide voter registration edge by 39,000 voters since August.
Just like we did in August, let’s tally the Democratic and Republican registration advantages in all three of Nevada’s congressional districts from November 2006, August 2008, and today, with blue indicating a Democratic registration advantage and red indicating a GOP advantage. Here’s what we get:
| District | Incumbent | Nov. 2006 | Aug. 2008 | Final 2008 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NV-01 | Berkley | 40,671 | 65,679 | 83,434 |
| NV-02 | Heller | 47,718 | 29,405 | 22,038 |
| NV-03 | Porter | 2,882 | 25,445 | 39,395 |
| Total | 4,165 | 61,719 | 100,791 |
My friends, that’s change that we can believe in. While Dean Heller may hold on in the 2nd District, he does have a lot of new (Democratic) voters to deal with. And if your name is Jon Porter, well… you’ve gotta be sweating some serious bullets right now.
On the presidential level, the polls may show a tossup in Nevada, but these numbers are telling us something else entirely.
early voting advantage in the state.
Up 56-28 in Clark and 52-32 in Washoe.
Note that does not count the absentee voting which is favoring Republicans, though it is much in number of people who are participating.
http://www.dailykos.com/story/…
Very good results for Becky Greenwald. Could this be another upset? I sure hope so. It also shows Obama behind McCain by four. Bush won this district by three and won Iowa. Most polls show Obama winning by 10 so if you correct the poll to show that Greenwald would have a nice lead.
I’d love to see another poll.
there is no way this can be called a tossup anymore. A shift of 37k in partisan ID, a stronger candidate, a strong field effort from the top of the ticket. Titus is going to win.
Hopefully Derby gives Heller a run for his money too. I’d love to see her pull off a upset.
Another ad up. It seems as if they are doing more then the DSCC. Come on Chuck!
Of Congresswoman Dina Titus! Oh yes, and I like the look of Nevada delivering its five electoral votes to Barack Obama! Yep, Nevada’s showing much more of a Democratic lean this year! I don’t know how anyone can still call NV-Pres or NV-03 “toss-ups” now! 😉
Watching polls religiously these past few months, I’ve been surprised Obama is not doing better in NV. It was close in 2004, polls show him doing much better than Kerry among Hispanics, foreclosures everywere, and NV has had huge gains in Democrats registered, presumably many Hispanics. Everything seems to be pointing to Obama doing much better than Kerry here. Are the polls missing new Obama voters? Is McCain running particularly strong as a regional candidate? Of all the states, NV has made the least sense to me in terms of where it’s polling vis-a-vis where it feels like it should be polling.